What Is The Difference Between Fixed Odds And Pools Betting?

Consider conventional betting on a horse race or the outcome of a single football match. The person making the wager is given odds by a bookmaker either face to face, over the telephone or online. When the ‘price’ (odds) is first set, they are based on the bookmaker’s first perception of the odds of a given result (and his consideration of what other bookmakers might be offering).

As the event gets nearer, the odds quoted by the bookie ‘drift out’ – that is, get longer (say from 4/1 to 10/1) or shorten (say from 4/1 to 7/2). Obviously we’re using the UK fractional odds system here, not US or European – the principle remains unchanged however.

Now, this change of odds is purely a result of the bets that the bookie is receiving and the money the bookie has at risk. It is not at all related to the ‘real odds’ (whatever they are) of the outcome of the event. The bookie is merely shortening the odds to protect himself (because he is taking too many bets at long odds which would be painful for him to lose), or lengthening the odds on other horses to balance off the shorter priced horses by moving the betting away from the favourite, again to protect himself or herself.

If the bookmakers risk is becoming one-sided, maybe by having accepted several large bets, then they insure themselves by ‘laying-off’ – placing bets of their own with other bookies to offset their risk. This is very similar to hedge funds and stock trading.

Of course, on a ‘quiet day’, bookies may also offer generous odds as a way of drumming up business.

What this boils down to is that if you bet when odds are first available for the event, then you will probably get a close to realistic odds for the real outcome of the event (in the view of the bookie).

When the bet is placed, the punter knows in advance what the payout will be for a given result (irrespective of when the bet is placed). The principle is the same for a fixed odds bet on a football match. Ignoring void matches, there are only four possible outcomes of a football match, including the two type of draw – score and no-score. So on a random basis for a single football match the odds are 1 in 4 of a correct single result forecast. With eight horses in a race the chance of randomly forecasting the winner are one in eight – a ‘place’ is really 3 bets.

How does that differ from the pools, and what are the chances of winning the football pools?

In UK football pools, the pools player is betting that his chosen set of selections will return a certain result (for example 11 home wins or 8 draws in the 49 matches). Odds are not fixed at the time of the bet. No one knows in beforehand how many draws will be on a coupon. In the 2008/2009 English season, there were 355 score draws on 42 coupons – an average of 8.4 score draws per coupon. If we also include no score draws, then the average is 12 draws and 544 total draws.8 draws per coupon. 28 coupons had 12 or more draw games on them.

The chances of correctly predicting a single correct line of 8 score draws when there are only 8 score draw results, are over 450,000,000 to 1. It is a big number, but with a low cost for each ‘line’, or bet, and some careful form analysis, it is possible to get the odds down to as low as 3/1 at a reasonable level of stake (
The downside is that the payout depends on the total amount staked by all the punters, and the number of draws on the coupon.

If you watch the football forums, you will see that of the few people who declare their bank in public, the most winnings have been on the football pools. We don’t know about those who keep their banks secret!

Winning the football pools can be done on a fairly regular basis. Of course, that is not to say that fixed odds betting is no fun, particularly if you are fanatical about a particular team.

———–xXx———–

About the Author

A successful football pools player with a system to make the odds work for the serious football pools fan. Predictions, results, plans and perms, statistics, insights and more. Find out more at=> www.footballpoolswizard.co.uk